If Josh Allen’s senior year at Wyoming was a hint of what was to come, his first two NFL seasons have not disappointed. Just as in the build-up to the 2018 NFL Draft, Allen remains one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the league.
Allen possesses a healthy self-awareness and is open to suggestions that go against his natural tendencies. That quality in itself helped Allen grow in his second season. Yet, amid the steps forward, what continues to prevent Allen from unlocking his potential — and the Bills from unleashing their entire offensive arsenal — is the inefficiency. Too often in 2019 the Bills had to rely on their defense to hold opponents and give the offense enough drives to win games.
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What matters most is that Allen showed signs of growth from Year 1 to 2. Below, we analyze the specific areas where Allen has improved and can continue to improve, and what the Bills can expect from their quarterback in his third season.
Areas of improvement
Time to decision
Those of you who have been regular readers of the weekly All-22 pieces will have noticed a focus on Allen’s time to decision in the pocket. While an expected low time varies from week to week due to differing game plans, there is a general rule of thumb: If a quarterback hangs onto the ball for an average over three seconds, it usually puts more stress on an offensive line, heightens the volatility of plays and means the quarterback isn’t seeing the field well enough. As a rookie in 2018, Allen existed in the three-second range. In his second season, Allen improved dramatically in this area, specifically in November and December.
By that point in the year, the Bills were over a month removed from their eye-opening loss to the Patriots — enough time to see if changes had taken hold. You’ll notice below that after the games against Washington and Cleveland, there seemed to be a shift in Allen’s processing and offensive philosophy. The result was one of Allen’s most effective stretches of quarterbacking to date.
In those three wins, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll implemented a quick-paced approach that usually featured 11 personnel, providing Allen with the palate to decipher the defense and take advantage of his legs. While Allen’s average processing time was 2.71 seconds, he completed 67 percent of his passes and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt — all improved figures from his season-long totals. He had three of his highest rushing totals in the regular season and turned the ball over only once. On top of it, Allen’s GPA was a 3.65, almost a full point higher than his season average (2.82). Even when the Bills didn’t feature the 11 personnel against Pittsburgh, Allen’s 2.48 seconds per decision was the best of his career; he also had an adjusted completion percentage of 76.5 and showed some next-level quarterbacking traits. It isn’t a surprise that in those November and December games where Allen was below his season-long processing average (2.80 seconds), the Bills were 4-1 and averaged 23.4 points, nearly four more than their full-season average (19.6).
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There appears to be a direct correlation between Allen’s efficiency and his time to decision, and there’s no better example of it than the playoff game. What we saw from Allen in Houston was an in-game split of two different quarterbacks. Up until his lost fumble, he was the efficient Allen from November and December, and after, he was the rookie version of himself slipping into old tendencies.
The biggest reason for Allen’s stark difference in output was that he took too long to process what he was seeing. While he made some plays down the stretch, the game was reminiscent of his rollercoaster rookie season ,particularly the second half of 2018. A more collected and decisive Allen would have put the Bills in a better position to win the game. If the Bills can extract Allen’s strong performances against quality competition and inject them into his 2020 campaign, the Bills offense could be onto something.
Short and intermediate accuracy
As soon as the Bills drafted Allen, they went to work with attempting to fine-tune his footwork and mechanics. They likely believed that some of Allen’s accuracy concerns from Wyoming had to do with inconsistent footwork. They aimed to correct it by having him throw from an uneven base on short throws to the flat, either on swing passes or designed wide receiver screens. They also looked to change how Allen opened up his hip and stepped to the left when throwing the ball to the left sideline. Allen’s legs were working against him on those throws. Correcting that would decrease the likelihood of the throw losing some velocity and improve the ball placement.
A video clip emerged from training camp in 2018 showing Allen missing badly on one short throw, and it became the source of mockery. He was a work in progress in that area, and his chart from his rookie season signaled that.
After careful work on these areas in 2018 and through a full offseason in 2019, Allen’s ball placement and overall accuracy improved. It certainly helped that the Bills added John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox to the mix. The results showed in a significant way, with a quarterback rating improvement of at least 10 points in nine out of the 12 zones. The biggest growth area? The left sideline from 11 to 20 yards, which rose from 38.1 to 114.5 and was the exact area where the Bills looked for him to improve with his footwork.
The key is there is room for more growth, which should be an encouraging sign for the Bills.
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The sweet spot between risk and reckless
Of all of Allen’s areas of growth in 2019, the most glaring is easy to spot in his game log. Allen’s turnovers were way down from 2018, with his interception rate showing the most improvement. In 2018, he averaged an interception every 26.7 throws. He cut the rate in half in 2019, averaging an interception every 51.2 pass attempts. The stats are the product of him staying within the offense and not attempting to get the most out of every single play. If the situation allows for it, Allen has learned that there is valor in learning to throw the ball away if nothing is open. The same goes for taking a sack. It took a while for that to sink in for Allen, especially after turning the ball over four times in Week 1 and throwing three interceptions in Week 4. However, it was that home game against New England when Allen made a significant change in approach.
Pretty insightful response from #Bills QB Josh Allen on how the game is starting to slow down for him. @JoeBuscaglia asked him when that started to happen and the steps he’s taken since @WKBW pic.twitter.com/tKBNMWhJJ9
— Matthew Bové (@Matt_Bove) November 26, 2019
Despite having a multi-turnover game in 46 percent of his starts as a rookie, Allen only did so twice in 2019. The last time it happened was in that outing against New England. From then on, Allen took better care of the football while throwing it. He still made plenty of tight-window throws that required a certain degree of risk, but he wasn’t forcing the issue as much as he was a rookie.
Standing tall in the pocket
Unlike the other three areas, Allen’s proclivity to stay in the pocket was a continued improvement from the end of his rookie season. Early in his first season, Allen tended to leave the pocket at the first hint of trouble, even if the threat was easily avoidable with a simple step in the pocket. It led to some fascinating moments featuring Allen as a runner, but it wasn’t doing much to foster his development as a passer. It’s a phenomenon known as “seeing ghosts,” and Allen did his fair share of it in his first starting stint.
Once he returned from an in-season elbow injury as a rookie, Allen seemed to benefit from watching the games from the sidelines. Allen improved his pocket presence almost immediately, even behind a scattershot offensive line in 2018. The big question was whether that growth would carry over into 2019. Behind a much more accomplished offensive line, Allen’s first notion was to hang in the pocket until things had broken down around him. Allen still used his legs, but primarily on designed runs. Allen standing tall in the pocket was the foundation for improvement in the other progress areas, which is why it was so crucial for him to make it into a habit.
Best Game: Week 13 at Dallas
Areas to improve
Throwing the receiver open
While Allen made many strides as a passer in his second season, the one that didn’t develop along the same plane is what will help him reach the next level. There is a crucial difference between throwing to an open player and throwing a player open. In college, throwing to an open receiver is the norm, as there is usually more space against inferior talent. In the NFL, the players possess a similar talent level, which means throwing with anticipation is vital. Sometimes, it’s the difference between a completion with potential for yards after the catch and a broken-up pass.
On back-shoulder throws, Allen’s timing and ball placement gave his receivers a chance to make the play. He needs to become more consistent in a couple of different areas of exploiting the throwing window. First, against tighter coverage to the sideline, Allen needs to get the ball out before the receiver breaks to the sideline. With a rocket arm, Allen can usually disguise throwing it just a hair too late, but by throwing anticipatory passes he removes all doubt and can heighten the odds of the receiver turning upfield for more yards. Second, Allen needs to consistently demonstrate the ability to forecast where there’s a hole in zone coverage and then deliver the ball to his receiver as he’s entering the soft spot. In doing so, Allen gives his receiver that much more space to operate with the ball and an opportunity to add more yards after the catch.
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There were plenty of yards left on the field because Allen prepared to throw a tick too late and the placement was just a bit off, which likely goes hand in hand with his processing time. One of the biggest talking points with Allen is that he hasn’t yet thrown for 300 yards in one game. A logical solution to putting him in position to rack up more yards is by throwing more passes with anticipation. Allen has shown the capacity to do it in spots, but it hasn’t become a habit. This needs to be a focal point during his offseason work and when the Bills reconvene for spring and summer practices.
Processing vs. overload blitzes
The Bills didn’t face many all-out blitzes during the season, but when they did it was usually near the end of close games. When a defense did send a lot of pressure, Allen struggled to cope and often made a bit of a panicked play. The Patriots and Ravens spearheaded those defensive looks against Allen, with the Texans mixing it in late in the playoff game. They wanted Allen to prove that he could spot the oncoming blitz ahead of the snap, change his protection to give himself more of a chance and then make a quick decision with the appropriate throw. More often than not, the attack caught Allen by surprise and the Bills suffered a negative play.
The closest Allen came to exploiting that style of defense was near the end of the Ravens game, when he had more time than expected and delivered a pass to Brown in the end zone that cornerback Marcus Peters broke up. Had Brown run a more deceptive route, Peters wouldn’t have had the chance to break up the throw. But, had Allen not rushed himself and realized his offensive line gave him enough time, he would have spotted Beasley breaking open for at least a first down, if not a touchdown. It’s a difficult concept to simulate in practice considering you can’t match the stakes of a late-game situation nor mimic the internal pressure Allen would feel to get rid of the ball without getting hit. Until Allen starts to show he can deal with overload blitzes and the required processing, teams will likely bring more of it in late-down and late-game situations.
Deep ball accuracy
A big to-do with Allen throughout the season were his misfires on deep passes despite having one of the strongest arms in the NFL. As Matthew Fairburn pointed out in his statistical breakdown of Allen, he completed only 13 percent of passes that traveled 30 yards or more in the air. You can see how those statistics reflect his passer rating on the 2019 chart, as he is either at or well below the league average to all deep areas of the field. His struggles with winning over the top are also part of why teams feel comfortable sending those overload blitzes at him.
Allen must find the timing and placement necessary with his receivers in deep ball situations, and not only on typical go-routes. One of his most successful throws from 2018 was the deep crossing route, mostly due to the chemistry he built with Robert Foster that made teams respect it, allowing Foster to move across the field with ample separation. Other areas of strength were deep post corners and deep back-shoulder throws. If teams continue to challenge Allen without much help over the top, he must make them alter their game plan by connecting on these throws. It would help if the Bills added another dynamic receiving target for him this offseason.
Ball security
Allen’s ability as a runner adds an element that keeps defenses uncomfortable. The majority of Allen’s rushing attempts in 2019 came on designed runs as opposed to scrambling out of the pocket and trying to make something out of nothing. He also shows great strength and contact balance when things do break down in the pocket to avoid a sack, which gives his receivers another chance to win on the play. In all of those situations, though, Allen has shown an alarming tendency of fumbling the ball.
Over two seasons, Allen has had the ball stripped from him 24 times in 29 games — averaging a fumble every 0.82 games. Even though he was much better at limiting his turnover-worthy throws and cut his interception rate down, lost fumbles still count the same way. It’s difficult to predict how many fumbles a player will lose in a given season, but Allen was allowing these potential game-changing plays to happen and was lucky that the Bills recovered 69 percent of them. Allen had a fumble rate of 0.94 in 2019, compared to 0.67 in his rookie year. Quarterbacks will naturally fumble the ball sometimes when they are trying to make a play in the backfield, but Allen fumbled the ball as a runner, too. If the Bills continue to call designed runs for him, they must drill down on Allen’s ball security in 2020.
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Worst Game: Week 4 vs. New England
What are fair expectations in Year 3?
You’ve likely noticed a theme throughout the analysis. The word “processing” is a central part of Allen’s story, and likely is what he must conquer to become the player the Bills envisioned on draft day in 2018. Outside of that three-game stretch, Allen’s play wasn’t so overwhelming that it strikes fear into the opponent. The processing is key to Allen’s consistency and the ability to make a big jump in 2020. The Bills will need to make an essential decision on Allen soon — whether to give him top-flight money as a starting quarterback in the NFL or to solve the position by other means. A jump in production, a continuation of improvements from 2019 and growth in some weaker areas should be the standard for Allen this coming season.
Until then, it’s unclear why many are already writing off the 23-year-old. One of his best attributes is the selfless willingness to adapt. If there is an evident deficiency in Allen’s game, he works to remove it and turn the improvement into a habit. Allen has reinvented himself from one week to the next multiple times already throughout his young career. The legitimate strides he’s made with his time to a decision, short-to-intermediate accuracy, cutting down on turnover-worthy plays and not leaving the pocket prematurely should all breed optimism that he can improve in other critical areas. Because of that amount of growth in such a short time, it’s challenging to define Allen’s ceiling in the NFL. And because of such a rapid improvement, it would be foolish to believe he’s a finished product before his third season.
As long as he continues to show evolving signs this summer, the Bills should be happy with their starting quarterback, and a long-term, lucrative deal could be waiting next offseason.
(Top photo: Rich Barnes / USA TODAY Sports)
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